What if the Fed Had Been an Inflation Nutter?

A structural rational expectations model of U.S. monetary policy is used to make a counterfactual experiment of a strongly inflation averse Federal Reserve Bank. Results for U.S. interest rates, output, and inflation over 1965-1999 are discussed.Optimal monetary policy; rational expectations; Kalman filter

C-CAPM without Ex Post Data

Survey and option data are used to take a fresh look at the equity premium puzzle. Survey data on equity returns (Livingston survey) shows much lower expected excess returns than ex post data. At the same time, option data suggests that investors perhaps overestimate the volatility of equity returns. Both facts reduce the puzzle. However, data on beliefs about output volatility (Survey of Professional Forecasters) shows marked overconfidence. On balance, the equity premium is somewhat less of a puzzle than in ex post data.equity premium puzzle, Livingston survey, S&P 500 options, Survey of Professional Forecasters

Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations

Forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatilty and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies U.S. and U.K. data, using a range of different tools and data sets. The forward rate rule perfoms reasonably well, in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate. The reason is that the 'noise' that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions.Inflation expectations; real interest rates; forward rates.

C-CAPM without Ex Post Data

Survey and option data are used to take a new look at the equity premium puzzle. Survey data on equity returns (Livingston survey) shows much lower expected excess returns than ex post data. At the same time, option data (CBOE's VIX) indicates that investors overestimate the volatility of equity returns. Both facts reduce the puzzle. However, data on beliefs about output volatility (Survey of Professional Forecasters) shows marked overconfidence. On balance, the equity premium is somewhat less of a puzzle than in ex post data.Equity premium puzzle; Livingston survey; CBOE VIX; Survey of professional forecasters

Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Nominal and real U.S. interest rates (1997Q1-2008Q2) are combined with inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to calculate time series of risk premia. It is shown that survey data on inflation and output growth uncertainty, as well as a proxy for liquidity premia can explain a large amount of the variation in these risk premia.break-even inflation, liquidity premium, Survey of Professional Forecasters

C-CAPM and the Cross-Section of Sharpe Ratios

This paper studies if the consumption-based asset pricing model can explain the cross-section of Sharpe ratios. The CRRA model and several extensions (habit persistence, recursive utility and idiosyncratic shocks) all imply that the Sharpe ratio is linearly increasing in the asset's correlation with aggregate consumption growth. Results from quarterly data on 40 US portfolios (1947-2001) and 10 international portfolios (1957/1971-2001) suggest that both the unconditional and conditional C-CAPM have serious problems: there is a great deal of variation in Sharpe ratios, but most portfolios have relatively similar and low correlations with aggregate consumption growth.Cosumption-based asset pricing; habit persistence; recursive utility; idiosyncratic risk; multivariate GARCH

Safe Haven Currencies

We study high-frequency exchange rate movements over the sample 1993-2006. We document that the (Swiss) franc, euro, Japanese yen and the pound tend to appreciate against the U.S. dollar when (a) S&P has negative returns; (b) U.S. bond prices increase; and (c) when currency markets become more volatile. In these situations, the franc appreciates also against the other currencies, while the pound depreciates. These safe haven properties of the franc are visible for different time granularities (from a few hours to several days), during both "ordinary days" and crisis episodes and show some non-linear features.high-frequency data, crisis episodes, non-linear effects

Is there Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact pessimistic, but show marked overconfidence rather than doubt. Whether this implies that overconfidence should be built into Abel's model depends on how the empirically heterogeneous subjective distributions are mapped into the distribution of a fictitious representative agent. We work out the form of this mapping in an Arrow-Debreu economy and show that the equity premium increases with the dispersion of beliefs. We then estimate this aggregate distribution and find little evidence of either overconfidence or doubt.equity premium; riskfree rate; aggregation of beliefs; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Livingston Survey

Safe Haven Currencies

We study high-frequency exchange rate movements over the sample 1993-2006. We document that the (Swiss) franc, euro, Japanese yen and the pound tend to appreciate against the U.S. dollar when (a) S&P has negative returns; (b) U.S. bond prices increase; and (c) when currency markets become more volatile. In these situations, the franc appreciates also against the other currencies, while the pound depreciates. These safe haven properties of the franc are visible for different time granularities (from a few hours to several days), during both "ordinary days" and crisis episodes and show some non-linear features.high-frequency data, crisis episodes, non-linear effects

Is There Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact pessimistic, but show marked overconfidence rather than doubt. Whether this implies that overconfidence should be built into Abel's model depends on how the empirically heterogeneous subjective distributions are mapped into the distribution of a fictitious representative agent. We work out the form of this mapping in an Arrow-Debreu economy and show that the equity premium increases with the dispersion of beliefs. We then estimate this aggregate distribution and find little evidence of either overconfidence or doubt.Equity premium; Riskfree rate; Aggregation of beliefs; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Livingston Survey